Wow, I didn't think the situation is that bad! So, how much longer it might take to get back to normal with suppliers?
Things feel (to my not-really-in-the-loop self) like they're stabilizing a bit - I mean, at least a couple project producers have gotten their products out. But I'm still hearing people say there's no end in sight for these problems, that we're years out from a recovery. I think what's stabilizing is probably
information about what's unavailable, because it seems like a lot of suppliers were lying, or leading customers on, or insisting they jump through hoops (that still didn't result in parts), but now people mostly understand the nature and scope of the problem, and, I think, what is and isn't going to be available.
I joined the kickstarter for a modern take on vintage computing hardware (a particular interest of mine), the
ZX Spectrum Next. Of course, going
well past projected dates is par for the course on kickstarter, but in this case it was a "2nd issue" of a previous successful kickstarter, with mild improvements on the original design, so I think it's reasonable to expect that under normal circumstances they wouldn't have exceeded their original projected ship date by more than, say, a year.
I funded it in Sep 2020, the projected date for shipments to start was Aug 2021. They did succeed in shipping, but they didn't begin shipping to Europe until ~December of last year. Mine didn't ship until a few weeks ago (just got it!), late January 2024.
Along the way, as previously mentioned, they had to deal with a board redesign due to the most important component in their design
becoming unavailable. They discovered this only after intensive investigation as to why they were getting run-arounds and weird/odd demands on what they must do in order to be supplied.The new part they had to design it around was significantly more expensive than the original (another recurrent theme).
Another product I purchased, Panic's handheld, somewhat gimmicky Play Date gaming device, similarly had to redesign their board around a parts shortage, in the midst of fulfilling pre-orders.
In both of these cases, there was prompt and regular communication about what was going on and what they were doing about it. This is probably
not the norm for my experiences.
I've heard similar stories from a bunch of much smaller-time (mostly single-person) outfits. Some of these simply stopped selling the product, not being motivated to redesign a product that they may have developed some years ago. A few others have placed orders with manufacturers for their finished designs, to fulfill their own product's orders, and have found themselves waiting indefinitely for the manufacturer to actually deliver. Some of these projects have no remaining money to pivot to someone else's supply, let alone to a new design. Some of these people were probably using a "stock" design that they didn't even have a hand in. There being no communication on progress from manufacturers, these projects are sometimes likewise not communicating anything to their customers who've been waiting a couple of years now for their investments to pay off. In the case of Kickstarter projects, of course, these customers have little recourse to reover their money.
In some other projects, the creators were somewhat less honest, and were making timeline promises they knew even while making them couldn't be delivered upon, and scope promises that were exaggerations (lies). I think with some of these, the intent was to "make up the difference" later - perhaps not deliver on everything promised, and certainly not in the proclaimed timeline, but at least enough that people wouldn't riot. When these projects were hit by components shortages and their commensurate redesigns, the projects went from being a year or two behind the schedule they were proclaiming, to their palace of lies collapsing in on them due to the absolute infeasibility of remotely making good on their promises. One such project that comes to mind is the Intellivision Amico (another, much more ambitious, modern take on vintage video game hardware), but then it's unclear to me in that particular case whether they would ever have fulfilled their promises (and orders), even if no electronic components shortage had ever come into play.
I have no knowledge of Proxima, their background, or their earnestness, but it wouldn't shock me to learn they might not be far from this last category of industry player (dishonesty compounded by the shortage and other unexpected calamities), which would be very disappointing. But the lack of information or communication is a red flag to me.
I just spoke to Ray at Petosa on the telephone. He did mention a component shortage necessitating a circuit board redesign (I didn't bring it up), but also that significant advancements in the button contact technology and circuit production(?) had led Proxima to decide it was worth it to delay production and redesign to incorporate that. So take that for what you will. There were no projected dates for even when they'd receive a functioning (second) prototype (he did say they'd received a prototype for the previous design, I think in '22, that they then sent around to some other invested parties for evaluation and feedback). He did say they were expecting such a forthcoming prototype "soon", but couldn't really give me an idea what "soon" means. A second prototype would presumably be followed by its own round of evaluations, appraisals, and potentially updates, before manufacturing etc would be put into full swing. It seems to me that, even if Proxima has been completely forthright, we're some years away yet on seeing anything consumable. I think for most of us, whether they're being honest or not, we're probably best off pretending we'd never heard anything about it, until some actually new information does finally become available, and we have new and reasonable timelines for production.
Ray also mentioned that Roland had stopped production on the FR-8 series, and was redesigning that, also due to a crucial electronic component becoming unavailable. I expressed surprise that Roland was even still invested enough in their V-accordions to be willing to redesign it to put it back in production, but he said it's been profitable for Roland and they're still selling a lot.
We all have different views...
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