Alan,
"What are the chances?"
The problem is, by now, the entire body of skilled artisans has died out and would need to be replaced .
Also, unless protected by tarriffs, they would be undersold by cheap imports.
All this was foreseeable: so much for the
"global economy "!?
The "con" in economy should have been a clue! ?
I agree with most of what you said. The part i disagree with is that there are still artisans around. Some of them work in factories, and getting them to leave their jobs in Italy, for example, to perform the same tasks in, say, New York, for much better pay would have worked and did work a century ago. But now? I sincerely doubt it.
The other group would consist of accordion repairers. Could you see them leaving their private practice to work in a.factory? I can’t.
So even if I could identify qualified workers to man those theoretical new factories, you could build the factories but rhey wouldn’t come.
I personally believe that the future of accordion manufacturing can take three forms. One would be what is now happening in Italy— continuing in the traditional way until the last traditional company can no longer afford to operate without Chinese investment.
The second scenario I see is that accordions manufactured in China will improve to the point of acceptance by the community of professional accordionists. Of course, there would be some wxchange of money, skill and design between this scenario and the first one.
The third scenario takes us into the realm of reedless and digital accordions. I don’t see anything new coming out of Roland. I do see some heightened interest in those manufactured by Concerto, Cavagnolo, and that newcomer, Proxima. There will also be some interest in reedless accordions made by MusicTech and Master. How much of the market any of the manufacturers in this third scenario can capture is anybody’s guess.